Forex Market Commentary for August 4, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary

The better than expected non-farm payrolls sent the dollar higher on Friday versus the European and commodity currencies, but a bouncing oil price and profit taking tempered gains. Dollar/yen remained under pressure. The risk for the dollar is on the downside on profit taking, but only for the day.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar recouped some of its losses, which took to a new low for the downmove. It failed to close below a rising trendline and today, the risk is on the upside.

Immediate resistance is at 1.5605. This is followed by 1.5630. Above 1.5700, the next resistance is 1.5770 from a Fibonacci retracement level. The next levels remain 1.5790, 1.5820, and 1.5860. These are followed by 1.5943.
Initial support comes at 1.5545. A pivot low is at 1.5517. Further support follows at 1.5460. Distant support is at 1.5305.
Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen recovered from a one-week low, but once again it closed slightly lower. The key level remains the 107.95 pivot, and the pair should encounter further swinging around it today.

Support is at 107.45. Distant support follows at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Immediate resistance is at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. Distant resistance is at 109.15.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar collapsed to a three-week low on Friday on further evidence of economic distress; the CHIPS manufacturing index fell to 44.3 in July, the lowest since December 1998. Today, the pound’s upside risk is limited.
Immediate support is at 1.9728. This is followed by 1.9747 and 1.9690. Distant support is still seen at 1.9650.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9780. Above 1.9840, the next significant levels are 1.9880 and 1.9970. There is a pivot high at 2.0075.
Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss struggled higher on Friday. The risk is on the downside today, given its proximity to the resistance of a trendline.

Initial support is seen at 1.0460. This is followed by 1.0405. Below 1.0370, support now comes at 1.0315. Distant support is pegged at 1.0200.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0526 from the trendline. Above 1.0545, resistance now comes at 1.0622. This is followed by 1.0790.
Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed



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