Forex Market Commentary for May 2, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar rallied big on May Day, and while the magnitude of the move was exacerbated by thin trading conditions, the decline in commodities make the rally of the US currency sustainable. Of course, we now all have to jump through the hurdle of the NFP data at 13:30 GMT, and volatility should pop. A flat or slightly better number should help the dollar further. But the pair generally alternated up and down days, so best of luck after the data release.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar collapsed on Thursday and my model remains short.
Initial support is at 1.5408. The next level is 1.5355. Distant support is 1.5220.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5500. A break above 1.5570 would signal a more aggressive recovery to 1.5690. Distant resistance is at 1.5790.
Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen rallied later on Thursday, but held below 105.00. The pair remains in an uptrend, my model is long, but the immediate outlook remains mixed.

Immediate resistance is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. The next levels remain at 105.20 and 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Below 104.00, strong support s pegged at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.
Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar fell on Thursday to reverse most of the gains made a day earlier, and now my model went short. The medium-term outlook remains negative, but some initial strength is likely.
Strong support comes at 1.9690. Distant support is at 1.9597.
Initial resistance is at 1.9835. Above 1.9910, strong resistance is now pegged at 2.0025.
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss finally broke out of consolidation and surged on Thursday. My model is long and the medium-term outlook is bullish.

Initial resistance still comes at 1.0545. The next level is 1.06250. Distant resistance now comes at 1.0790.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0440. The next level is at 1.0370. This is followed by 1.0300. Support is then pegged at 1.0255.
Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish


See Also

Retrouvez d'autres analyses sur les devises dans la rubrique analyse forex du site Trader-Forex.