Dollar remains in range, wary of Wednesday's releases
Releases from Europe:

May Forecast Actual
German GfK Consumer Confidence 4.50 5.90
German consumers appear to be over their insecurity with the GfK measurement rising strongly to 5.9 in May. Gains were seen in all sub-indexes. Economic expectations rose to 23.3 points in April from 15.0 points in March, while the index showing income expectations jumped to 10.5 points from 1.5 points in March.

The following economic releases are due today:
April
German CPI (MoM) +0.2%
German CPI (YoY) +2.8%
Italian Business Confidence 88.5
May
German GfK Consumer Confidence 4.50

The week promises much. The market is bearish Dollars and has been provided with lower levels to buy. However, there is plenty of European news also and it could be a matter of which news provides the least disappointment.
U.S. Q1 GDP is expected to be just about flat with forecasts either side of zero. Without a doubt it was a bad quarter with just about nothing to suggest that there is any reason to look for anything but a negative to flat number.
The FED is widely expected to cut rates by 0.25% again to 2.00% but then call and end to the day – that there is no reason to cut rates any further. Quite rightly so given that the series of cuts have provided little economic reaction – with only a temporary calming influence to the credit markets.
And the ISM is expected to register a mild slowdown. This may be the only possibility for a positive surprise with corporate results generally better than expected and talk that the lower Dollar is providing U.S businesses with a price advantage.
Bush provided a timely reminder that tax rebate checks are in the post and this will help boost the economy over the coming months.
Against this we have a range of European retail and manufacturing PMI’s, CPI and business confidence numbers. All appear under pressure right now due to a combination of a high Euro and languishing consumer demand.
Indeed, with the market having shown a distinct reluctance to maintain Dollar selling against all currencies except the Euro the market is primed for a big move.
The bears maintain that the States will merely show the extent of the deterioration in the economy while the bulls point out the lag of the European economy is now catching up and that a more sustainable slowdown is more likely under the pressure of high inflation and uncertainty.
Either way the move will likely be quite strong. Hold on to your hats…

Note important support and resistance areas:
USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 105.56-98 1.5786-10 1.0429-70 1.9938-59
Res: 104.81-16 1.5702-33 1.0375-00 1.9869-89
Spt: 104.14-35 1.5554-83 1.0280-00 1.9775-04
Spt: 103.48-89 1.5497-10 1.0213-46 1.9710-46
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