All comes down to the U.S. employment numbers tonightReleases from Europe:
March Forecast Actual
Swiss CPI (MoM) +0.2% +0.3%
Swiss CPI (YoY) +2.5% +2.6%
The SNB will be squirming slightly in their seats having seen inflation move higher than forecast once again and recalling their forecast of moderation as the economic slowdown progresses. Well, there is still time for that to occur. Energy and food prices are still the main drivers of inflation, factors that are wholly outside the control of central banks and governments.
Separately on the subject of consumers now providing the greater risk in prompting the next downturn, a survey run by Axa in the U.K. has identified that 70% of households are planning to cut spending this year.
A Fibonacci 38.2% claim they will eat out less and 19% will socialize less. This of course comes on top of having to divert spending away from personal goods in order to pay for higher energy, gasoline costs and of course higher mortgage repayments.

The following economic releases are due today:
February
German Factory Orders (MoM) +0.8%
German Factory Orders (YoY) +6.7%
March
U.S. Change in Non-Farm Payrolls - 50K
U.S. Change in Manufacturing Payrolls - 40K
U.S. Unemployment Rate 5.0%

Data-wise it really is all down to the Non-Farm Payrolls tonight.
Even technically the Dollar has wavered between bullish and bearish patterns and in the process a consolidation pattern has developed that begs a break of range tonight. The big question is which way the Dollar will go.
The weaker side still seems to be t he Dollar’s downside but even if it manages to reach new lows the move should be muted, firstly by the prospect of next week’s G7 meeting and beyond that longer term players are aware that there is every chance that the fiscal stimulus plan will cause a recovery in H2 which will allow a more sustainable recovery in the Dollar.

Note important support and resistance areas:
USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 103.47-67 1.5785-26 1.0217-48 2.0081-00
Res: 102.93-18 1.5700-31 1.0143-68 1.9974-93
Spt: 101.70-06 1.5612-23 1.0044-69 1.9912-21
Spt: 100.87-22 1.5551-71 0.9952-80 1.9785-21
See Also