Forex Market Commentary for April 2, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar rallied further on Tuesday against all the majors and this bodes well for my long model long. But the commodity currencies tallied against the US currency. The downtrend for the dollar is still in place, and Wednesday should see choppy trading. The US factory goods data should not impact the market.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar sank to a one-week low on Tuesday and this is good while my model remains short. Expect another attempt to push lower, but the downside looks limited.

Immediate support is still seen at 1.5565. Below 1.5480, there is distant support is now seen at 1.5350.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.5640. Above 1.5690 there is resistance at 1.5770. Distant resistance now comes at 1.5904 from a pivot high.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen surged on Tuesday and this is in line for my long model. Hold long positions but the upside is starting to look crowded.
Immediate resistance now comes at 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. This is followed by 104.10.
Initial support is seen at 10110. This is followed by 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. 101.25.
Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar fell to a near four-week low on Tuesday and my model remains short. I expect choppy trading as the pair is approaching the tip of a triangle.

Immediate support is seen at 1.9730. Below 1.9690, there is distant support at 1.9585.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9840. A break above 1.9965 would signal a further upmove to the peak at 2.0090.
Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss surged to a one-week high on Tuesday and my model is long. The medium-term outlook remains bearish but I prefer to be square here.

Initial resistance is now seen at 1.0155. The next level is 1.0200. Further resistance is at 1.0250. Distant resistance is at 1.0390
Immediate support is still seen at 1.0035. This is followed by 0.9950. Below 0.9880, distant support is now pegged at 0.9775.
Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish