Forex Market Commentary for March 28, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary

The high yielders performed well on Monday, while the low yielders, the yen and the franc eased. With Chase coming to its senses in buying Bear Stearns and the US stock market showing some signs of life, the appetite for risk seems to increase. Hmmm…careful here, as the commodities are perched high on a cliff. Go with Monday’s flow on yen crosses, but keep a tight stop.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar consolidated further after sinking last week. A peak is probably in place, but more weakness will help.

Immediate support is seen at 1.5400. Below 1.5340, there is further support at 1.5285.
Initial resistance is at 1.5470. The next level is 1.5520. Above 1.5590, resistance now comes at 1.5665.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen broke out of an inside range on its way to a 10-day high. My model is long, so I like this. Choppy to higher trading is likely today.
Immediate resistance is at 101.25. The next level is seen at 101.90.
Initial support is now seen at 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. Below 99.00, distant support is at 98.46.
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar edged higher in an inside range on Monday. Sideways trading should dominate today as well.

Initial resistance still comes at 1.9885. This is followed by 1.9960 and 2.0005. A break above 2.0085 would signal another further rally to 2.0250.
Immediate support remains at 1. 9765. Below 1.9690, the next level follows at 1. 9585.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss rallied to a 12-day high on Monday. My model is long and the upside is favored, and today should see more strength.

Immediate support is seen at 1.0180. Below 1.0135, distant support is now pegged at 1.0050.
Initial resistance remains at 1.0270. The next level is 1.0320.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish